Post(s) tagged with "forecasts"
McKinsey shouldn’t close up shop just yet. But if Wikistrat has its way, the future of geopolitical analysis will belong to the crowd.
The biggest consultancy firms—the McKinseys and Janeses of the world—make many millions of dollars…
There are a few lessons to glean from the Surprise Index, which I was only made aware of this week. First, predictions are often reported as news. They’re not. They’re predictions, and they’re almost always wrong. Full disclosure: I’ve been as guilty as anyone for breathlessly passing along predictions without the qualifying them as conjecture. Second, to be fair to the analysts, sometimes the first draft of the economic figures aren’t any better than the predictions. A great example: We initially estimated GDP falling 3.8% in the last three months of 2008. Instead, it fell nearly 9%. That’s a horrible miscalculation that had a real impact on decisions made by Congress and the Federal Reserve to fix the economy. I wonder what the Economic Surprise Index would say about first readings of GDP and unemployment numbers.
Source: The Atlantic
A Future of Fossil Fuels
EIA’s latest numbers shows a continuous growth in energy consumption, led by China and India.
Full Story: Technology Review
Since I have been working in the transport industry for some years and realized that energy people in general had very shallow understanding of transportation. E g does this projection include that person transportation actually increase exponentially in relation to GDP during certain development phases of a country or region? Andreas Schäfer writes about this in Long-Term Trends in Global Passenger Mobility (a republished/revised report from 1997).
If these projections assume linear growth of personal transportation when in fact it will turn out to be exponential, they might be radically underestimating the energy consumption for the decades to come.
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P A Martin Börjesson
To be able to see the future emerge we have to throw a wide net to catch the weak signals. In this tumble I collect things I find valuable for my work as scenario planner, strategist and futurist - for more info about me go to www.futuramb.se.
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