Post(s) tagged with "forecasting"
Important read by Stowe Boyd who uses the same references (Philip Tetlock, Karl Popper, C S Peirce) I use when talking about this and gets to the point about the limits of forecasting vs our disposition to believe that forecasting is possible, here in the context of political science.
There is a stubborn logical fallacy at work in the world of political forecasting, and that is a belief in the inherent determinism of the universe. As Karl Popper wrote in The Open Universe, scientific determinism is
the doctrine that the structure of the world is such that any event can be…
Forecasting Financial Crashes: The Ultimate Experiment Begins
If a new technique for predicting crashes really works, a bold new experiment will measure how well.
Paul Higgins: A commendable step. Too much of the commentary and claims around forecasting are based on individuals making a prediction that comes true but no examination of the overall performance. I will be watching this with great interest. My initial reaction from principle is that forecasting of complex events is by definition impossible but my principles would also say that scientific and empirical testing should always be carried out.
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P A Martin Börjesson
To be able to see the future emerge we have to throw a wide net to catch the weak signals. In this tumble I collect things I find valuable for my work as scenario planner, strategist and futurist - for more info about me go to www.futuramb.se.
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