Stowe Boyd: Political Scientists Aren't: Their Forecasts Are Worse Than Random ⇢

Important read by Stowe Boyd who uses the same references (Philip Tetlock, Karl Popper, C S Peirce) I use when talking about this and gets to the point about the limits of forecasting vs our disposition to believe that forecasting is possible, here in the context of political science.

stoweboyd:

There is a stubborn logical fallacy at work in the world of political forecasting, and that is a belief in the inherent determinism of the universe. As Karl Popper wrote in The Open Universe, scientific determinism is

the doctrine that the structure of the world is such that any event can be…