Nov 08 2009
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Forecasting Financial Crashes: The Ultimate Experiment Begins
If a new technique for predicting crashes really works, a bold new experiment will measure how well.
Paul Higgins: A commendable step. Too much of the commentary and claims around forecasting are based on individuals making a prediction that comes true but no examination of the overall performance. I will be watching this with great interest. My initial reaction from principle is that forecasting of complex events is by definition impossible but my principles would also say that scientific and empirical testing should always be carried out.
