stoweboyd : I agree on the importance of this factor, and I know you are aware of this, but it is not the technological capacity alone that influence our society or life form but the diffusion and application of it. It will certainly have an effect but I wonder if we have seen very much of the societal effect of this yet so we can say it can be a part of the current postnormal situation.
Another proof that 2005 was the start of the postnormal era:
Businesses and consumers will add roughly 40 exaflops of computing capacity in 2014, up from 5 in 2008 and less than 1 in 2005. - McKinsey
The most important metric now is exoflops. Future currencies will be based on the cost of computing cycles.
As we march onwards towards wearables and alerts on our wrists, we’re no longer shocked by technological progress, but rather exhausted by it.
It’s been seven years since the first launch of the iPhone. Before that, smartphones were a curiosity,…
Technology moves fast, but its speed now slows us down. A torpor has descended, the weariness of having lived this change before—or one similar enough, anyway—and all too recently. The future isn’t even here yet, and it’s already exhausted us in advance.
A pretty good sketch of a transforming future from McKinsey and some thoughts on the management challenges:
It would be easy, though, for organizations and leaders to become frozen by the magnitude of the changes under way or to tackle them on the basis of outdated intuition. Taking the long view may help. In 1930, the great British economist John Maynard Keynes boldly predicted that 100 years on, the standard of living in progressive countries would be four to eight times higher. As it turned out, the upper end of his optimistic expectation turned out to be closer to the truth. Those who understand the depth, breadth, and radical nature of the change and opportunity that’s on the way will be best able to reset their intuitions accordingly, shape this new world, and thrive.
New forecast: 11 billion people on Earth in 2100 - with 80% certainty
And for the first time, through the use of a “probabilistic” statistical method, the Science paper establishes a range of uncertainty around its central estimate-9.6 billion Earthlings in 2050, 10.9 billion by 2100. There’s an 80 percent chance, the authors conclude, that the actual number of people in 2100 will be somewhere between 9.6 and 12.3 billion.
I agree with this National Geographic article that this probabilistic approach is new and innovative, and a highly needed move in demographic research. But as a scenario planner I don’t think this is enough. Not enough by far if the forecasts should be able to capture the real uncertainties.
For instance, take value change and the dramatic changes in consumer behavior in the Western world.
If marketing people has grown to realize that purchasing patterns in the West today is dramatically more uncertain and unpredictable that they previously have been, doesn’t this mean something for other areas of behavior as well? One thing you could assume based on this altered consumer patterns is that the underlying driving forces behind people’s decision have changed in a deeper way. We are talking about a major changes where the emergence of a modern, reflexive and individualistic human is reinforced by a communication revolution.
This transformation is causing a profound change in the value base on which we are taking almost all decisions. And I think this also have real and dramatic effects on life changing decisions like having children. On my micro level I e g regularly hear and see people who I suspect are having children based on their search for meaning and identity rather than for the traditionally economic, cultural or biological reasons. On local levels this seems to be wreak havoc on demographic forecasts which can be seen many areas where they occasionally and unexplicable experience local nativity booms which makes it difficult for the economic planning.
These value changes are presently Western and we can discuss how and if they are prevailing in the West or if they will diffuse to the other 5 billion people on this planet. But if the basis for this change of values isn’t material wealth and education, as many of the tradtional theories assumes, but changes in communications patterns and the ongoing life forming transformation of urbanization there is a very real chance that these patterns are spreading to all corners of the earth much faster and with greater certainty than we think.
If this is the case this calls for a very different kind of demographic long term analysis based on scenarios building on uncertainties in the underlying driving forces rather than today’s statistics models which builds on possibly obsolete assumptions on human behavior.
We can either choose to manage evolutionary processes or not, but evolutionary change will proceed regardless," Smith said, pointing to the recent rises of antibiotic-resistant diseases, pesticide-resistant insects and climate change-driven extinctions.
“Evolutionary change is happening around us all the time,” he said. “We have to decide whether we want to be part of it. Our inaction is having huge and detrimental impacts to biodiversity and medical progress. We need to use our knowledge to drive things in our favor.
Libraries are at the forefront of both access to information and, online, to academic publishing. The role of institutional repositories to enable access to what an institution produces is essential, and these repositories are increasingly open access. The Library of the 21st century, through its online repository/repositories, is transforming the role of academic publishing. Librarianship deals with the collection, organization, preservation, and dissemination of information resources. Enabling access is what librarians do.
But isn’t that what Amazon and Google also do? And at least Google is extending this with venturing into areas of knowledge creation and a wide array of other kinds of value creation as well…
Emitter and receiver subjects with non-invasive devices supporting, respectively, a brain-computer interface (BCI), based on EEG changes, driven by motor imagery (left) and a computer-brain interface (CBI) based on the reception of phosphenes…
An international team of neuroscientists and robotics engineers have demonstrated the first direct remote brain-to-brain communication between two humans located 5,000 miles away from each other and communicating via the Internet, as reported in a paper recently published in PLOS ONE (open access).
Digital Darwinism is a fate that threatens most organizations in almost every industry. Because of this, businesses not only have to compete for today but also for the unforeseeable future. Digital Darwinism is the phenomenon when technology and society evolve faster than an organization can adapt. There are many reasons for this of course. Every fabric of a company is strained due to internal and external influences. The challenge lies amongst the very leaders running the show today. Their mission and the processes and systems they support today may already be working against them.This isn’t a technology problem, it is a leadership problem. The chiefs of our villages must realize that the situation is so different that they have to consult the medicine men in order to identify a new path, a new way of life.