futuramb's wider net

Pendulum Is Swinging Back on 'Scenario Planning' - WSJ.com

Use of scenario planning rose following the 2001 attacks, to about 70% of executives surveyed by consultants Bain & Co. in 2002, up from 30% in 1999. Since then, Bain’s surveys have found fewer executives using the tool, though the consulting firm expects heightened interest this year, because of the recession.

“It’s sort of like flood insurance,” says Michael Raynor, a corporate-strategy expert at Deloitte Consulting LLP. “Everybody runs out and buys flood insurance the year after the flood.”

The Year The Newspaper Died

Preethi Dumpala has collected information that underscores the tsunami that hit the newspaper industry this year. At least in the US, but I wonder if Europe is so far behind? Even if we have a longer and more culturally embedded newspaper habits, can it really stand a steep decline in ad-money, and a similar decline in circulation numbers? The problem is further that newspaper finance are strained due to the fight with free papers as well as big restructuring projects because of the shrinking margins.

There is a substantial risk that the current financial situation really hit the Achilles heal of the newspaper industry!

Tech Is Too Cheap to Meter: It's Time to Manage for Abundance, Not Scarcity

Even if I don’t agree totally with Chris Anderson I must also emphasize his point that the relation between scarcity and abundance is rapidly changing, and has been since some time.

What is happening is that technology change the value equations for almost everybody on the planet. This means that some of the fundamental prerequisites for making business or managing any institution or organization are changing in such a way that may turn worlds upside down.

Yes, business model innovation is necessary, but I think we see evidence of that this tsunami of technological change more and much deeper than we can grasp right now.

And the relation between scarcity and abundance is one of the core relations on which great many organizations and institutions is built upon.

Read his post and why not download his book “Free” in audio format for free! ;-)

FuturePundit: 1999 Oil Production Model Pretty Accurate So Far

So far Duncan and Youngquist’s predictions on peak dates have achieved pretty decent accuracy given the quality of data they had to work with to make their predictions. If their predictions continue to be even half as accurate we are in deep trouble.

File-Sharing and Copyright — HBS Working Knowledge

China says no to virtual economies | Net Effect

Twittering from the tractor: smartphones sprout on the farm - CNN.com

Internet-enabled phones are making their way into rural America slowly because it’s difficult to send Internet data over cellular networks in some sparsely populated areas where wireless service is spotty, some advocates have claimed.

Still, some farmers are adopting the technology despite the odds.

The biggest draw of smartphones and online social networks is that they provide human connections to people for whom farm life can be lonely, said Chuck Zimmerman, publisher of an agriculture news blog called agwired.com.

kashklash:: exchanging the future

An interesting site and project discussing a future without money. What will it be like?

We are envisioning a new world where today’s aging, less useful and even dangerous financial systems
are replaced by or mixed with more disruptive innovations and exchanges. Imagine yourself deprived of all of today’s financial resources. Maybe you’re a refugee or stateless. Yet you still have your handset and laptop and Internet and a broadband cellphone connection….